The Iowa Triumvirate?

The Iowa Triumvirate?...

We were thinking about the possibility of a virtual three-way tie coming out of the Iowa caucus, particularly on the democratic side. We're thinking Obama will get the youth and/or student vote, mainly. He might also get the votes of those Caucasians (a little irony, here) that want to vote for a diversity candidate. We think these numbers of votes will be roughly equal to those garnered by John Edwards and Hilary.

Personally, we like Edwards and his strong ethos towards/against corporate America. We were thinking he will get the labor and unemployed and buyout voters to take up his side. We would like to see an Edwards presidency, but the Iowa caucus will be so close (we think) that this is going to be a tough race for him or anybody.

We mention Hilary last, because we believe she will get most of the die-hard Democratic party vote and the Clinton lovers' votes. We expect this to be about equal to the numbers that the other two major candidates (above) will score. She may come out ahead by a fraction of a percent, but it will be no clear victory. However, the Clinton camp will probably declare it a clear victory if it does happen (and probably will) and a win for America, too.

The other Democratic candidates will either die a miserable political death, or just tough it out and keep on going. We expect Kucinich to tough it out for as long as he can. Which is OK with us, we like him, too.

The truth of it is, we think it very likely that there won't be a clear political victory in Iowa. We're looking all the way to the Democratic Party Candidate Nomination - that's how tight we think this race will be.

The other side (GOP) is shaping up like a ugly barroom brawl. Huckabee and Romney have spilled political blood like its water. We can't predict if either will come out ahead. There's just too much mud on the windshield. Well, if you can't see them, you can't vote for them, can you? This leaves the door ajar for McCain and Ron Paul. McCain is rising in the polls and Ron Paul's supporters are truly inspired (we find political leaflets from is supporters cleverly displayed in restrooms). Both are colorful, seasoned and inspired politicians. We take particular interest in their stands on the issues. It is just possible that McCain and/or Paul could walk away victorious in Iowa.

We do have some "family ties" to Mr. McCain and are deeply sympathetic to him and like him a lot. Supposedly, one of our granduncles served under his father on the USS Missouri and witnessed the signing of the treaty.

Link to Iowa Poll graphic from BBC here.